What was I thinking?
Before the season started, I honestly thought the Vikes could manage nine wins. Luck out here and there, maybe 10.I drank the Kool-Aid. I thought the defense was going to be so much better that the offense didn't have to win games. I thought the offense was going to be good enough (in the running game anyway) to score 14 to 17 points per game.
I now see I was completely wrong about the offense. Adrian Peterson is the real deal, but the offense as a whole has shown itself capable of scoring 27 points. Unfortunately, that's over three games, against three rather so-so defenses.
For those of you keeping score at home, that's three touchdowns for the offense, and three for the defense this season.
Speaking of Defense, it is an even bigger surprise to my mind. After all kinds of offseason hype about clamping down the pass defense, the Vikes have proven to be vulnerable to any team willing to abandon the run. Any team. The conventional wisdom from the first few games is that the defense played well enough to win. I don't think so. If not for some lucky breaks against the Lions (and an injury to John Kitna), that game would have been a blowout.
Yesterday, Damon Huard looked like the second coming of Dan Marino in the second half. After throwing 10 passes for under 40 yards net in the first half (many of them short dumpoff balls), the Chiefs tossed the ball 19 times in the second half for about 160 yards and a touchdown. They converted on four third down plays, including a third and 15.
They had drives of 61 and 84 yards to begin the second half. And folks, this is Damon Huard we're talking about here. What do you think Favre, Romo, McNabb and Cutler are going to do? My guess is they may throw the ball a few times. That's my guess.
What does this mean? Well, now I'm thinking maybe if they play well, five wins might...just might... be within reach. And that's no given. Here's the remaining schedule, you'll see what I mean:
Green Bay, at Chicago, at Dallas, Philadelphia, San Diego, at Green Bay, Oakland, at NY Giants, Detroit, at San Francisco, Chicago, Washington, at Denver.
Do you see four wins there? They have a shot against Chicago and Oakland at home. But neither is a given. Oakland played Denver tough two Sundays ago, and beat Cleveland yesterday. Chicago is terrible on offense, but the Bears had no problem beating Kansas City, and on Defense they are better than the Vikings. If neither team can score, you have to give the edge to the Bears.
Maybe they beat Detroit in the Dome, but that isn't in any way a given the way the Vikes played the Lion passing attack two weeks ago. The Giants aren't great, but I just can't see them winning in that stadium.
And beyond those four games, I don't see a whole lot to be encouraged about. Frankly, there's a decent chance this team could go 0-13. We could be watching the worst Vikings team since 1967.
OK, ok. I know what you're going to say. We knew this team wasn't going to be great coming into the season, that all we're looking for is improvement. Trouble with that is, we were assuming last year was rock bottom. Apparently there was a little more room under the keel than we thought.